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Why don't bookies respect Giants?

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A simple Google search yields broad results on why it is nearly impossible to change first impressions. Sunday’s NFL card highlights the concept as a three-point loss to the 5-1 New York Giants and the 2-4 Jacksonville Jaguar.

Power ratings from bookmakers and reputable bookmakers determine the betting market. They calculate these ratings based on this year’s in-season results and last year’s statistics to provide an evergreen basis.

My personal objection is that New York definitely has a much more competent-looking roster under head coach Brian Dabolll. After all, we’ve yet to witness the QB sneak a third and 9th from his own 4-yard line – a game that will forever embody the Joe Judge era. Personally, I think we should ignore our preconceived notions and evaluate the Giants only through the lens of this year’s results. I would describe myself as a believer, but doubts certainly remain.

“They were lucky,” SuperBook chief NFL punter Ed Salmons told ESPN with the Giants’ top five comeback wins in the league, three from double-digit deficits. “Giants are what they are. Jacksonville is the better team. Look at the point difference.”

Numbers you need to know

New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
Sunday, 1:05 PM ET, TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Fla.

It is enough for a team to overtake its opponent to win the match. The single-defeat Giants’ overall point difference is plus-14, which is more consistent with a .500 team. However, is that fair criticism in a league known for parity? Isn’t winning hard enough and tight wins shouldn’t mean execution and balance?

2-4 Jaguars have a plus-24 point difference. It could be argued that their numbers were skewed from battering incompetent Indianapolis Colts and beating the Chargers with a limp Justin Herbert. Ultimately, Jacksonville still lost to Houston and Washington.

“I did [the spread] four myself [team of traders] They humiliated me, Craig Mucklow, vice president of commerce at Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN. They took a last-second field goal and 2-point conversion against Tennessee, beat Carolina and Chicago, and then beat the Ravens at halftime.”

The main key to New York’s success is red zone defense efficiency. The Giants have the fifth best red zone defense this season and only allow a goal in 40% of red zone opportunities. About half of the top 10 teams in this category in the last few seasons have made it to the playoffs.

Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells famously said, “You are what your record says you are.” That’s true for standings, but betting numbers are much more important in this world.

Line movement of the week

New York Jets (-1.5) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 1:05 PM ET, Empower Field, Mile High, Denver

Play

0:28

Doug Kezirian reviews the Jets’ performance this season and doesn’t think the Broncos have what it takes to win.

Bookies have posted a score that spans the entire week, although Russell Wilson’s status remains uncertain. Bookmakers usually put a line between the odds for each scenario and let the bet take shape. They prefer this approach rather than waiting until a final decision is announced. There is no reason for them to hesitate to take action, as they are taking action on both sides and everyone has the same uncertainty.

Had Wilson been completely healthy, Denver would have been a three-point home favorite. Yes, like the Giants, the 4-2 Jets have yet to earn the respect of the betting market. Instead, Denver was the one-point favorite throughout the week, and when the Broncos announced that Brett Rypien would be starting, the Jets were the betting favorites.

Game of the Week

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 4:25 PM ET, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California.

The Chiefs find themselves in another high-profile game after losing at home to the Buffalo Bills last Sunday. Kansas City has been on target ever since Patrick Mahomes took the stage and won MVP awards in 2018. The Chiefs shoot the best of everyone and that’s why I support San Francisco.

49ers can be tough to handicap, but they generally respond well to challenge. Kyle Shanahan played five games in a row after one loss. Also this week, the team bought Christian McCaffrey in a trade and saved Joey Bosa from injury. I expect draws for first place in the group and a big effort at home. It’s always hard to wither Mahomes when he’s such a short favourite, but situationally prefers Niners. I question how long the Chiefs are in the tank, and I definitely have questions about their defense.

Selection: 49ers (+1)

sharp report

As always, professional bookies influence the market. If they bet on a game, the line moves. So, the numbers they hold are usually long gone. However, sometimes the market bounces back. There are just so many factors that come into play. But even if their numbers are still present, there may be an opportunity to bet during the game or just save it in the back of your mind.

In terms of consensus, sharp players have bets Lions +7, Broncos PK, Browns +6.5, 49ers +2, Steelers-Dolphins under 45 and Bears-Patriots over 39.

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