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Let's fade Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in the Week 7 contest picks

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I’m in an NFL competition where you have to submit five ATS selections each week. Over the course of five weeks, these picks are 18-12 after a disappointing 2-3 in Week 6 finish. It’s worth noting that the lines are the adjusted spreads that are posted every Wednesday and the selections are posted on Friday night.

Here are my five ATS picks for Week 7 in the NFL.

In the last three games, the Cincinnati defense is in the fourth-worst state for opposing yards per offensive attempt. The Falcons are third in the league in running fields. Atlanta has three rushing quarterbacks on RBs Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley, but more importantly, QB Marcus Mariota is also used as a runner. In back-to-back games, Mariota rushed at least 50 yards and averaged 8.5 yards per carry. The Bengals’ offense is still vulnerable with quarterback protection, unable to continue his field play (27th in fast yards), and now faces a top-five Atlanta defense in the takeaways. As a void team, Joe Burrow could find himself in trouble this week.

Lions in Cowboys +7

I’m not a doctor but Cowboys QB Dak Prescott had 10 screws placed in his thumb. Now he needs to make a victorious return and close the 7-point gap? It could, but the only data we have is Week 1 performance, and it wasn’t pretty. Against what we now know is not a bulletproof defense in the Bucs, Prescott completed 48% of his passes with interceptions and was sacked twice. Dallas may have a defense, but the Lions have heart. It can be difficult to prevent a goal spread against a team that plays until the clock hits zero. Just ask Eagles supporters in Week 1 and Vikings supporters in Week 3. As the Lions recover from injury, they will once again fight to the end.

Browns +6.5 on Ravens

The Browns are in the top five in fourth quarter scoring and we know the Ravens can’t maintain the lead. That could certainly change at some point, but Baltimore needs to show me they can play four full quarters. Cleveland may not have much respect for recent losses, but this is one that was tested by a team that passed in the Chargers (lost two points), faced a rushing team in the Falcons (lost two points), and a Browns team that faced off. Good defense in the jets (lost one point). The Browns remain competitive and may be competitive once again this week.

Colts on Titans +2.5

The Titans are the only team in the NFL this season to score zero in the fourth quarter. Defensively, the Titans’ defense allowed a total of 13 touchdowns, 12 of which were by pass. Sadly for Tennessee, Indianapolis is second place to beat touchdown percentage. Potentially, we could see the Colts offensive turn the tide. The Colts won back-to-back games, and QB Matt Ryan gave his best as they beat the Jaguars 34-27, scoring three passing touchdowns with no interception or sack. Go on.

Seahawks +5.5 on Chargers

This is about health. Really missing LB Joey Bosa in Chargers. Khalil Mack is a beast, but he’s only had two sacks in the last four games. Chargers starting center Corey Linsley suffered food poisoning earlier this week, kicker Dustin Hopkins is out, and WR Keenan Allen is a playtime decision. Regardless, the Seahawks offense with QB Geno Smith showed me that they can be competitive in high-scoring jobs, with 32 points in New Orleans and 48 points in Detroit. Seattle’s defense is certainly off-putting (30th overall defense), but despite giving up the yard, they’re in the top five in the takeaways. This could work in a pass-happy offense led by Justin Herbert.

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