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6 Best Bets at 1pm ET for Packers vs Commanders, Giants vs Jaguars, More

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Follow Chris Raybon on the Action App to get all his betting predictions.


NFL Week 7 Picks

To choose
Commanders +4.5
Best Book
Time
13:00

Chris Raybon: Last week, I noticed the Packers didn’t pair well with the Jets defense due to their ability to take pressure, and this week the odds for Green Bay/washington-soccer”>The same thing is more against the Commanders. Washington ranks third in print rate (29.3%), and their rank in print rate is seven points higher than lightning rate (28.4%, 10th) signaling that they can get home in a four-man rush.

Rodgers struggles under pressure when Davante Adams isn’t there to quickly win off the line, and his passer rating drops from 103.2 to 65.0 from a clean pocket under pressure. Rodgers started to trust Robert Tonyan more last week and linked him with 12-on-10 passes for 90 yards, but he may not be there this week as Washington is third in the DVOA for TEs passes.


Tail Raybon in FanDuel: Commanders +4.5


You’d think Matt LaFleur would eventually flip more running games given the presence of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, but that doesn’t seem like a quick fix either, as Washington’s defense is fifth against running in the DVOA.

Washington’s offense will be no worse with Taylor Heinicke than with Carson Wentz (IR, thumb) and should be successful against the last-placed Packers defense with a three-headed backcourt made up of Brian Robinson Jr., Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic. DVOA versus running.

Commanders also have a decisive advantage over special teams, placing fifth in the DVOA while the Packers are in 30th place, which may seem big in an event that was supposed to be a low-scoring event.

According to our Action Labs data, Week 7 non-division house dogs went +7 or less in low-sum play, and 141-102-7 (58%) versus spread (ATS).

Despite facing names like Bailey Zappe, Daniel Jones and Zach Wilson in half of their games, the Packers still have only one win this season, more than 3 points.


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To choose
Giants +3
Best Book
Time
13:00

Chris Raybon: The Giants are lucky to be 5-1, but they pair well with the Jags. The Giants are playing the third-highest ratio in man coverage, with Jacksonville placing 30th (4.9) per man-vs-targeted pass and 31st-placed man-vs-man (7.5).


Tail Raybon in FanDuel: Commanders +4.5


But largely due to their two-time appearances in six games against the Colts, the Jaguars face the second-highest field coverage in the league, which inflates their offensive numbers. In last week’s competition, the Colts didn’t even play a moment of man coverage.

And in two games against Indianapolis, Trevor Lawrence completed 52-to-45 passes (86.5%) for 400 yards (7.7 yards per attempt) with three tank destroyers and no interference. In his other four games, he went 151 to 88 (58.3%) for 997 yards (6.6 YPA) with six TDs and four interceptions.

On offense, the Giants should once again be able to use Saquon Barkley against a Jags defense that has allowed 155.3 offensive fields and 2.5 TDs per game into opposing backcourts over the past three weeks. After starting his career as a turnover machine, Daniel Jones has quietly made ball safety a force with just four turnovers in six games – half as much as Lawrence.

According to our Action Labs data, Jones is a 12-4 ATS as a road dog and has a perfect 10-0 ATS as a road dog by less than 8 points.


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To choose
Tony Pollard Over 34.5 Rush Yards (Bet to 44.5)
Best Book
Time
13:00

Chris Raybon: Pollard has thrown for at least 43 yards in four of six games this season. Both times, he came up against top running defenses in Tampa Bay (eighth) and Washington (fifth), placing in the top eight in the DVOA. The Lions run defense bears no resemblance to these 31st-ranked units in the DVOA.

Pollard is one of the most productive RBs in the league, averaging 5.1 yards per carry in 372 tries. That efficiency helped Pollard run for 41 yards or more in 13 (68%) of the 19 games leading up to last season, despite playing behind Ezekiel Elliott.

I predicted Pollard 49 yards in this matchup.


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To choose
Terry McLaurin 4.5 Under Reception (Bet -125, -185)
Best Book
Time
13:00

Chris Raybon: Jaire Alexander was overshadowed for the first time last week, failing Garrett Wilson to hit four goals, as Wilson finished with just one catch, eight yards a day.

This week, Alexander is a good bet to overshadow McLaurin, who has led the Commanders with 387 welcome yards this season. As McLaurin has held four or fewer receptions in four of their six games this season and is in nine of 15 Heinicke’s starters last season, it would be a good bet to go below that number even if he’s not in danger of being overshadowed by Alexander.

Overall, McLaurin had four wins in just eight (35%) of the 23 games leading up to the start of last season. I predict a 3.8 chance of catching it and a roughly 67% chance of it dropping below 4.5.


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To choose
Chuba Hubbard Under 14.5 Welcome Area (-110, Bet to -12.5)
Best Book
Time
13:00

Chris Raybon: Hubbard will likely run the Panthers’ backcourt in the go-around, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good bet to get past his yard support.

The Bucs defensive front wiped out RBs last game, allowing for the league’s lowest 10.8 receiving-yard position. With Lavonte David and Devin White flying on the linebacker, the Bucs only allow 2.4 yards per target and opposing RBs 3.4 yards per reception so Hubbard can catch a handful of balls and still hit the bottom. Over the course of six games, Todd Bowles’ defense has yet to allow an RB to jump 14 yards, only an RB up 12 yards.

RB’s yard support against the Bucs is under 10-0 this year.


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To choose
Christian Kirk 4.5 Under Reception (+125, Bet -110)
Best Book
Time
13:00

Chris Raybon: Kirk started the season with three or six games, but has held a total of seven games in his last three games. He’s unlikely to get a large volume against a Giants defense that allows at least WR (9.67) per game in the league.

Kirk’s season average is 4.2 receptions per game, which is what I envision for him. Even if I conservatively go up to 4.5, the probability of going below 4.5 should be -111 and the probability of going below 5.5 should be -244.


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